Vic pacem para bellum*

Roman proverb

The time of transition which we cross between the world finished of the twentieth century and world in gestation of the twenty first century gives us occasion and leisure, relative, of a reflection on the future history. But previously let us wonder: is it possible to move on road of the forecast without running a risk, inherent to all which concerns the future, to commit heavy errors of judgment? The education of the authentically historic event that was the Great War, renamed First World war because for the first time in the history of the humanity a regional conflict had become world and was going to extend until Far East, these lessons had they not still current value? The globalization was already on the march without the reach of the phenomenon was perceived. Let us look clearly at the period of extreme historic intensity that chained Second World War to the First one. A deaf fate seems to guide by the hand all the protagonists of the tragedy, which is going to lead Europe to a definitive fall, any conceivable being restoring in the term of a disastrous collapse. The protagonists are not the only Europeans of it. Outside of the scene of the European Theater America begins the drama by denying the commitment to take care of the respect of the treaty of Versailles what it had set to France. Anticipating then being astride the disorders which settle down on the West, the Russia revolution brings its contribution to the functioning of the infernal machine which is going to break Europe, mother of the Occidental civilization.

However the world which includes this and ancient times faced a lot war and peace tragedies. From Troy to Alexander, from Roman Empire to Byzantine Empire, from Ottomans to British Empire. Mankind saw a lot of wars which affected to their life and demonstrate the humanity as Horde fraction like in the game World of Warcraft.

WWI and WWII were the main actors in the world arena - War and peace. Forty five years of peace, peace under the most terrifying weapons but peace all the same, allowed Europe

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* If you want a peace ready for war

to recover from devastation of the war and to settle down right by the United States in the first rank of countries of the richest in the world. However, as soon as one of two powers militarily equivalent antagonism of which created a state of balance favorable to the preservation of peace disappeared of the European ground.

A fundamental education gets free of the succession of tragedies, which marks the history of the world during twentieth century, the constancy of the motives of the behavior of man.

Please don't forget the religion role in the mankind. It was and now very effective in the war and peace. Pacem in Terris - the universal common God: with these thought a lot of people acted as an in religion. The main idea: God will punish that man who makes war and affects the peace process.

However some people act with in their interests. Let's think just we need to goal our interest, but we don't make a war with anyone and there is no other way. What will we do? Is there any way of acting? Of course NO! NO!

Let us look then at the new world which appears slowly from the ground womb; let us drawn the big lines of its personality in forming as become clearer gradually the outlines of the face of a child who grows and let us try to distinguish some tendencies of the future.

Major fact is the turnover of the demography, a fact that has no historic precedent and of which one has to foresee that consequences will be, historic. An example will be enough to show the importance of it: during the last century the population of the globe increased closely of four billions and a half of persons while during the previous twenty centuries it had increased less than eight hundred millions!

Reaching the term of this article let us ask the question which summarizes everything: would conflicts be called to disappear of the life of the humanity for the reason which the numbering of dates begins henceforth with 20 instead of 19? Evident answer calls a single comment: in traditional confrontations overlapped, simply a global dimension which returns international relations more complex without having modified the nature of the man.

These far-reaching questions suggest that the problem of order in world affairs, which is the problem of peace rightly understood, cannot be separated from issues of moral principle. There is an unbreakable bond between the work of peace and respect for truth. Honesty in the supply of information, equity in legal systems, openness in democratic procedures give citizens a sense of security, a readiness to settle controversies by peaceful means, and a desire for genuine and constructive dialogue, all of which constitute the true premises of a lasting peace.

Five years ago, two academics -- Monty Marshall, research director at the Center for Global Policy at George Mason University, and Ted Robert Gurr, a professor of government at the University of Maryland -- spent months compiling all available data on the frequency and death toll of twentieth-century combat, expecting to find an ever-worsening ledger of blood and destruction. Instead, they found, after the terrible years of World Wars I and II, a global increase in war from the 1960s through the mid-'80s. But this was followed by a steady, nearly uninterrupted decline beginning in 1991. They also found a steady global rise since the mid-'80s in factors that reduce armed conflict -- economic prosperity, free elections, stable central governments, better communication, more "peacemaking institutions," and increased international engagement.

Also Francis Fukuyama researched this topic. He argues that if there is a end of history that means no war will be.

You know what was the conclusion? Nothing! The world never will stop to wage a war or a need for peace. It will go on, like form the beginning of mankind. If there is no one of the issues: war or peace, that means is there is a problem. And then we must think about our life. World will characterized with war and peace - like Moon and Sun!

Col. Alain Faure - Dufourmantelle, WAR AND PEACE: A glance over the 21st century.

Message of his holiness pope John Paul II, Pacem in Terris. January 01, 2003.

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