Epistemology and the Psychology of Human Judgment - Michael A Bishop

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• Annotation
• Preface
• 1 Laying Our Cards on the Table
• 1. Starting points: What epistemology is about
• 1.1. The starting point of the standard analytic approach to epistemology
• 1.2. The starting point of the philosophy of science approach to epistemology
• 2. The end points: The theories generated by the two approaches
• 3. The structure of a healthy epistemological tradition
• 4. Seductive circularities and empirical hooks: Is a scientific investigation into normative epistemology possible?
• 5. Our uneasy relationship to tradition
• 2 The Amazing Success of Statistical Prediction Rules
• 1. The success of SPRs
• 1.1. Proper linear models
• 1.2. Bootstrapping models: Experts vs. virtual experts
• 1.3. Random linear models
• 1.4. Unit weight models
• 1.5. SPRs vs. Humans: An unfair test?
• 2. Why do SPRs work?
• 2.1. The flat maximum principle
• 2.2. Condorcet to the rescue?
• 2.3. An alternative hypothesis: The world we care about consists of mostly monotone interactions
• 3. The foibles of human prediction
• 3.1. Covariation illusions
• 3.2. Limits on memory, attention, and computation
• 3.3. Lack of reliable feedback
• 3.4. The basis of epistemic exceptionalism: The overconfidence feedback loop
• 4. The tempting pleasures of broken legs
• 4.1. Diagnosing the broken leg problem
• 4.2. Grounded and ungrounded SPRs
• 4.3. Three caveats on defection
• 5. Conclusion
• 3 Extracting Epistemic Lessons from Ameliorative Psychology
• 1. Robust reliability
• 2. The costs and benefits of reasoning
• 3. Significance
• 4. A practical framework for improved reasoning
• 4.1. Resource reallocation
• 4.2. Adopting a more reliable (but no more expensive) reasoning strategy
• 4.3. Adopting more reliable, more expensive reasoning strategies
• 4.4. Adopting less reliable (but cheaper) reasoning strategies
• 5. Conclusion
• 4 Strategic Reliabilism: Robust Reliability
• 1. Real reliability scores
• 2. Robust reliability
• 3. The importance of real reliability scores
• 4. A circularity objection
• 5 Strategic Reliabilism: The Costs and Benefits of Excellent Judgment
• 1. The virtues of flawed cost-benefit analyses
• 2. A cost-benefit approach to epistemology
• 2.1. Epistemic benefits
• 2.2. Cognitive costs
• 2.3. Curves and processes
• 3. The cost-benefit imperative
• 6 Strategic Reliabilism: Epistemic Significance
• 1. The role of significance in Strategic Reliabilism
• 2. A reason-based approach to significance
• 3. The potential unavailability of objective reasons
• 4. Conclusion
• 7 The Troubles with Standard Analytic Epistemology
• 1. The descriptive core of the theories of Standard Analytic Epistemology
• 2. Standard Analytic Epistemology: Throwing stones in glass houses
• 3. How SAE might try to get normative prescriptions from its descriptive core
• 4. How does Strategic Reliabilism handle the naturalist challenge?
• 5. The relationship between Strategic Reliabilism and the theories of Standard Analytic Epistemology
• 8 Putting Epistemology into Practice: Normative Disputes in Psychology
• 1. Conceptual reject-the-norm arguments
• 2. Gigerenzer’s conceptual reject-the-norm argument
• 3. Cohen’s conceptual reject-the-norm argument
• 4. Evidence for irresolvable differences in how people reason about certain problems
• 5. Conclusion
• 9 Putting Epistemology into Practice: Positive Advice
• 1. Diagnostic Reasoning
• 2. Overcoming overconfidence
• 3. Causal reasoning
• 3.1. The regression fallacy
• 3.2. Policy assessment
• 3.3. Rare events
• 4. Conclusion
• 10 Conclusion
• 1. Skepticism
• 2. Circularity worries
• 3. Is Ameliorative Psychology really normative?
• 4. The grounds of normativity, or Plato’s Problem
• 5. The relative paucity of SPRs
• 6. Counterexamples, counterexamples
• 7. Reliability scores
• 8. Explanatory promises
• 9. Abuse worries
• 10. The generality problem
• 11. Strategic Reliabilism and the cannon
• 11.1 Not justification
• 11.2. No theory of ‘‘our’’ considered epistemic judgments
• 11.3. Costs and benefits
• 11.4. Significance

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