2. Why do SPRs work?
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There is an aura of the miraculous surrounding the success of SPRs. But
even if there is no good explanation for their relative success, we ought to
favor them over human judgment on the basis of performance alone. After
all, the psychological processes we use to make complex social judgments
are just as mysterious as SPRs, if not more so. Further, there is no generally
agreed upon explanation for why our higher-level cognitive processes have
the success that they do. (Indeed, there is even disagreement about just how
successful they are; see, for example, Cohen 1981 and Piatelli-Palmarini
1994.) It might be that given our current understanding, replacing human
judgment with an SPR may inevitably involve replacing one mystery for
another—but the SPR is a mystery with a better track record.
There is an aura of the miraculous surrounding the success of SPRs. But
even if there is no good explanation for their relative success, we ought to
favor them over human judgment on the basis of performance alone. After
all, the psychological processes we use to make complex social judgments
are just as mysterious as SPRs, if not more so. Further, there is no generally
agreed upon explanation for why our higher-level cognitive processes have
the success that they do. (Indeed, there is even disagreement about just how
successful they are; see, for example, Cohen 1981 and Piatelli-Palmarini
1994.) It might be that given our current understanding, replacing human
judgment with an SPR may inevitably involve replacing one mystery for
another—but the SPR is a mystery with a better track record.