11.4. Significance
К оглавлению1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1617 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67
68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94
Finally, what about significance? The idea that good reasoning is reasoning
about significant matters is, of course, a central idea of the pragmatic
tradition in epistemology. And plenty of non-pragmatists have pointed
out that not all truths are created equal. But in recent years, this point has
been made best by a philosopher of science, Philip Kitcher (1993, 2001).
Not only has Kitcher written forcefully about significance, but the final
chapter of The Advancement of Science (1993; see also his 1990) is a fascinating
attempt to view social epistemology from a cost-benefit perspective.
There are three features of this emerging trend that give reason
for optimism. First, it honors what psychologists have already shown:
Good reasoning is an intricate achievement of busy brains in complex
environments. Second, treating cost-benefit measures as an essential
component in epistemology allows economics and psychology—the current
and future tools of public policy—to recruit and assimilate the
normative, theory-building efforts of properly trained epistemologists.
The third reason for optimism is more self-serving: This approach places
epistemology not just where it belongs, but where this book began—in the
philosophy of science, and in so doing, in science itself.
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Index
ABC Research Group, The, 55, 75
Abela, P., ix
Alexander, S. A., 30
Ameliorative Psychology, 3,
11–16, 26, 54–70, 154–157,
170–171
normative nature of, 14–16, 54–55,
167–169, 169–170
Anderson, E., 81
applied epistemology, 6–7, 17, 24–25,
58–70, 138
See also cost-benefit approach
to epistemology, Four Ways
to improve reasoning,
epistemology (structure of
healthy tradition)
Aristotelian Principle, 19–21, 104–107,
115–116
See also Standard Analytic
Epistemology, relation to
Strategic Reliabilism
Aristotle, 19
Arkes, H., ix, 44, 145
Armstrong, D. M., 10, 182
Ashenfelter, O., 13, 26
Ashmore, D., 13, 26
base rate neglect, 122, 130–132, 139–144
Bayesian reasoning strategy,
139–140
frequency formats vs. Bayesian
reasoning strategy, 143–144
Baum, R., ix
Bazerman, M., 152
Bettman, J. R., 39, 85
biased interpretation of feedback,
42–43
biases
conjunction fallacy, 119, 124
covariation illusions, 37–39
fundamental attribution error, 119,
hindsight bias, 155
interpretation of feedback, 42–43
interview effect, 32, 41–42, 45, 150
regression fallacy, 148–149
self-serving bias (Lake Wobegon
Effect), 44, 119
unrepresentative feedback, 42
See also base rate neglect,
overconfidence, lack of controls
in everyday reasoning
Bloom, R. F., 32
Blumer, C., 145
BonJour, L., 104, 110–111, 112, 171
bootstrapping models, 28–29
Borges, B., 56
Borgida, E., 120
Bowman, E. H., 29
Boyd, R., viii, ix, 96
broken leg problem, 45–52
solution to, 47–52
See also selective defection
Butler, T., ix
Carey, S., 113
Carpenter, R., 13, 57, 66
Carroll, J., 13
Casscells, W., 122, 140
causal reasoning, 147–152
consider-the-control, 148–152
importance of controls, 147–148
policy assessment, 149–151
rare events, 151–152
regression fallacy, 148–149
See also lack of controls in everyday
reasoning
Chapman, J., 37, 38, 39
Chapman, L., 37, 38, 39
Charman, S., 145, 156
Cherniak, C., 68
Chi, M., 113
Chiles, L., 132
Chisholm, R., 104
Christensen, C., 145
circularity objections, 19, 77–78,
164–167
Clement, J., 113
cognitive diversity, 107–109, 133–135
Cohen, L. J., 32, 119, 120, 121, 127,
128, 129–130, 130–131, 132–133,
134, 135, 136, 137, 139
Condorcet’s jury theorem, 34
Conee, E., 180
consider-the-control, 148–152
consider-the-opposite, 145–147
Corrigan, B., 29, 31
cost-benefit analysis, 80–81
air safety, 83
incomplete, 81, 82–83
monetary value on human lives,
82–83
in psychology, 84–85
retirement investment, 81–82
unreduced 81–82
cost-benefit approach to epistemology,
56–57, 79–92, 184–185
cognitive costs, 87–88
cost-benefit imperative in
epistemology, 89–91
diminishing marginal utility,
59–60
epistemic benefits, 85–87
imposing discipline, 91–92
marginal expected reliability, 60–61,
64–65
measurable, 88
problems with, 80
start-up costs, 62–63, 68
See also opportunity costs in
reasoning, Four Ways to improve
reasoning, cost-benefit analysis,
significance
credit scoring, 13, 15, 66
Cruz, J., 119, 127
Csikszentmihalyi, M., 66
Daniels, N., 9
Dasgupta, P., 99
Dawes, R., viii, 12, 13, 14, 26, 28,
29, 30, 31, 33, 35, 36, 37, 40–41,
46, 49, 50, 57, 91, 147, 152,
176–177, 178
debiasing strategies
consider-the-control, 148–152
consider-the-opposite, 145–147
frequency format vs. Bayesian
reasoning strategy, 143–144
frequency formats, 15, 141–144
200 Index
frequency formats vs. probability
formats, 141–142
sequential lineups, 156
DeRose, K., 104, 162, 183
Descartes, R., 157
DeVaul, R. A., 13, 32
diagnostic reasoning, 139–144
Diener, E., 65, 99
Doris, J., 156, 184
Dretske, F., 10, 104, 182
Dublin, L., 82
Dunham, H. W., 31
Ebert, A., 132
Edwards, D., 30
Edwards, J., 30
Einhorn, H. J., 33, 91
epistemic excellence, 16–17, 169–170
epistemic exceptionalism, 43–45
epistemology
and critical thinking courses,
vii–viii, 7, 152–153
future of, 155–157
practical importance of, 6–7, 24–25
structure of healthy tradition, 17–19,
104–105
well-ordered social system of, 18–19,
101–102
See also Aristotelian Principle;
Standard Analytic Epistemology,
features of; Standard Analytic
Epistemology, relations to;
Strategic Reliabilism
Epperson, D., ix
expected range of a reasoning strategy,
71–74
discriminable partition of, 73
natural partition of, 72–73
Faust, D., viii, 14, 40–41, 46, 57
Feldman, R., 7, 110, 178, 180
Filskov, S. B., 13, 47
Firth, R., 103
Fischhoff, B., 44, 45, 145, 146
flat maximum principle, 32–34, 57
Foley, R., 10
folk physics, 113–114
Four Ways to improve reasoning,
58–70
less reliable, less expensive strategy,
69–70
more reliable, more expensive
strategy, 66
more reliable, no more expensive
strategy, 66
resource reallocation, 64–66
frequency formats, 15, 141–144
Frey, B., 99, 170
Friedman, M., 168
fundamental attribution error, 119, 155
generality problem, 178–182
Gettier, E. L., 10, 105
Gigerenzer, G., 15, 55, 56, 57, 75,
120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 126,
127, 131, 132, 137, 139, 140,
141, 142, 143
Gilbert, D., 156, 170
Gilovich, T., 37, 42, 43, 44, 119, 148,
151, 152
Glaser, R., 113
Goldberg, L. R., 13, 14, 28, 29, 47
Goldberg rule, 13, 14–15, 49, 53, 66,
71–72, 89–91, 161
Golden Rule of Predictive Modeling,
12–13, 27
Golding, J. S., 13, 57, 66
Goldman, A., ix, 16, 65, 104, 106,
156, 161, 179, 182, 183, 184
Goldstein, D. G., 55, 56, 57
Goodman, N., 9, 129, 178
Grayboys, T., 122, 140
Griffin, D., 119
grounded Statistical Prediction Rules,
47–52
Grove, W. M., 12, 27, 76
Index 201
Hacking, I., 52
happiness and significant problems,
30–31, 65–66, 93, 98–99
Harman, G., 63, 156, 183
Hastie, R., 35, 36, 37, 152
hedonic psychology, 65–66, 99, 156,
170
affective forecasting, 65, 99, 170
Henrion, M., 145
Hertwig, R., 123
heuristics and biases program,
119–137, 147–152
hindsight bias, 155
Hoffrage, U., 15, 122, 132, 140, 141,
142, 143
Hogarth, R. M., 33
Howard, J. W., 30
impressionistic judgment, 11–17,
37–47
interview effect, 32, 41–42, 45, 150
Johnson, E. J., 85
Johnston, W., 85
justification, theories of, 8–10, 16–17,
22, 54, 104–118, 178–180, 182–184
coherentism, 104, 117
contextualism, 104, 114, 162, 183
foundationalism, 104, 112
reliabilism, 22, 104, 114, 117,
178–180, 182
Kahneman, D., 12, 65, 119–20, 126,
148
Keil, F., 109
Kell, F., viii
Kim, J., 8–9, 105
Kitcher, P., viii, ix, 18, 93, 102,
168, 185
Kohen, E. S., 28
Koriat, A., 146
Kornblith, H., ix, 119, 175
Kupfer, J., ix
lack of controls in everyday reasoning,
41–42, 50–51, 147–152
Lalonde, R., 13, 26
Lane, R., 99
Lehman, D. R., 153
Lehrer, K., 10, 104
Leli, D. A., 13, 47
Lempert, R. O., 153
Lepper, M., 146
Lewis, D., 104
Lichtenstein, S., 44, 45, 145, 146
Lopes, L., 120
Lord, C., 145, 146
Lotka, A., 82
Lovie, A. D., 15, 33, 57, 66
Lovie, P., 15, 33, 57, 66
Maynard Smith, J., 84
Medin, D., 109
Meehl, P., viii, 12, 14, 27, 31, 40, 41,
46, 52, 57, 76
Meltzer, B. N., 31
Mendola, J., ix
Miller, P. M., 134
Milstein, R. M., 32
Monahan, J., 12, 13, 49, 57, 177
Myers, D., 65, 98, 99
naturalism, 22–23, 47, 104
See also circularity objections
naturalist challenge, 109–111, 112–115,
115–116
Newell, A., 40
Nichols, S., 107, 108, 113, 184
Nisbett, R. E., vii–viii, 37, 39, 87, 119,
120, 152, 153, 176
normativity, vii–viii, 6–7, 12–16, 19–21,
54, 102–103, 116–118, 125–133,
135–137, 153, 154–157, 160–163,
167–169, 169–170, 170–171
Oishi, S., 65, 99
Olson, E., 145, 156
202 Index
opportunity costs in reasoning, 57,
67–68, 69, 83–84
Ortmann, A., 56
Oskamp, S., 32
overconfidence, 43–45, 144–147
consider-the-opposite, 145–147
overconfidence feedback loop, 43–45
Pappas, G., 10
Parker, G. A., 84
Passell, P., 27
Pavela, G., ix
Paxson, T. D., Jr., 10
Payne, J. W., 85
Petty, W., 82
philosophy of science approach to
epistemology, 11–21
Piatelli-Palmarini, M., 32, 120, 125
Pisoni, D., viii
Plantinga, A., 111
Plous, S., 69, 146
Pollack, J., 104, 119, 127
Porter, T., 82
Preston, E., 146
proper linear models, 26–28
Putnam, H., 171
Quine, W. V. O., 84, 111
Quinsey, V. L., 17, 46, 48
Railton, P., 96
Ramachandran, V. S., ix
random linear models, 29–30
range of a reasoning strategy. See
expected range of a reasoning
strategy
Rawls, J., 9
reasoning strategies, 17, 71–78,
139–144
recognition heuristic, 55–56
less-is-more effect, 55
not robust, 56
Rees, E., 113
reject-the-norm arguments, 120–133
Cohen’s, 121, 127–133, 135–136
conceptual, 120, 121–133
empirical, 120–121
Gigerenzer’s, 121, 123–127
reliability
importance in Ameliorative
Psychology, 55–56
resource dependent notion, 61
robust, 55–56
reliability score
importance of, 76–77
observed, 72
for probabilistic reasoning strategies,
173–174
real, 71–74
Remez, R., ix
Robinson, B., ix
robust reliability, 55–56
Ross, L., vii–viii, 37, 39, 119, 155
Sawyer, J., 47
Schoenberger, A., 122, 140
Schwab, A., ix
selective defection, 45–53, 90–91
accepting error to make fewer
errors, 91
failures of, 13, 46–47, 49–52,
90–92
licensed by Standard Analytic
Epistemology, 53
success of, 47–49
Seligman, M., 65, 99
Sen, A., 81
Shepard, R., ix
Sieck, W. R., 44, 134
significance, 57–58, 65–66, 69–70,
85–87, 93–103, 156, 163, 185
in Ameliorative Psychology,
57–58
applied to the discipline of
epistemology, 103
availability problem, 99–102
Index 203
significance (continued)
demands placed on reasoners,
100–101
insignificance, 97
lost causes, 97–98
negative significance, 98–99, 102
reason-based account of, 95–97
role in epistemology, 93–95
thick-thin problem, 95
and well-being, 93, 98–99
See also cost-benefit approach to
epistemology
Simon, H., 40, 68
skepticism, 160–163
Sklar, L., 62
Slovic, P., 12, 44, 145
Smith, E., 109
Sober, E., 22
social epistemology, 101, 156
Sosa, E., 183
Spelke, E. S., 113
SPR. See Statistical Prediction Rules
Stalnaker, R., viii
Standard Analytic Epistemology,
features of
as armchair anthropology, 107–109,
184
case from expertise, 114–115
characterization of, 4, 8
conservative, 11
descriptive core of, 105, 107–109
Gettier problem, 10, 105
goal of, 16
jumped the shark, 22
licenses selective defection strategy,
53
naturalistic challenge, 109–111,
112–115
normative failures, 18, 21–23, 79–80,
144, 171, 172
reflective equilibrium, 9, 129
reverse engineering of, 106–107
stasis requirement, 8–11, 105–106
Standard Analytic Epistemology,
relation to
Ameliorative Psychology, 15–16,
114–115
Aristotelian Principle, 104–107
philosophy of science approach,
11–21
psychology, 154–155
Strategic Reliabilism, 17, 116–118,
182–185
Stanovich, K., 133, 134, 135, 145
start-up costs, 62–63, 68
stasis requirement, 8–11, 105–106
Statistical Prediction Rules (SPRs),
3, 12–16, 24–53, 57–58
abuse, potential for, 175–177
academic success prediction rule
(ASPR), 72–74, 179–181
bootstrapping models, 28–29
credit scoring, 13, 15, 66
F minus F Rule, 30–31, 47–48,
49, 53
Goldberg rule, 13, 14–15, 49, 53, 66,
71–72, 89–91, 161
grounded and ungrounded,
47–52
human performance predictor
(HPP), 179–181
list of examples, 13–14
proper linear models, 26–28
prostate cancer SPR, 48
random linear models, 29–30
Sudden Infant Death Syndrome
SPR, 13, 66
unit weight models, 30–31
Violence Risk Appraisal Guide
(VRAG), 46, 48, 49–50
wine predictor, 26–27
See also success of Statistical
Prediction Rules
Stein, E., 119, 120, 132
Stich, S., viii, ix, 16, 78, 100, 107, 108,
113, 119, 183, 184
204 Index
Stillwell, W., 13, 66
Stine, G. 132
story-telling, 50–52, 148–152
Strategic Reliabilism, 4, 71, 138,
170–171, 178–182
applied, 119–137, 138–157
availability problem, 101–102
counterexamples, 171–173
descriptive core of, 104
epistemic excellence, 16–17, 169–170
explains success of Ameliorative
Psychology, 175
explains success of Aristotelian
Principle, 174–175
generality problem, 178–182
goal of guiding reason, 162,
172, 181
inessential codicil, 116–118
naturalist challenge, 115–116
problem of environmental disparity,
72–74
reasoning strategies, 17, 71–78,
139–144
and virtue epistemology, 183–184
vs. the theories of Standard Analytic
Epistemology, 116–118,
182–185
See also philosophy of science
approach to epistemology,
expected range of a reasoning
strategy
Strayer, D. L., 85
Strevens, M., ix, 34, 36
Stutzer, A., 99, 170
success of Statistical Prediction Rules
and claims to native epistemic
expertise, 53
explanation for, 32–37
Golden Rule of Predictive Modeling,
12–13, 27
unfair test against experts, 31–32
Sunstein, C., 83, 84, 166
Swain, M., 10
Swets, J., 12, 13, 49, 57
Take the Best, 57
Takemura, K., 134
Thomson, L., 152
Thornton, B., 30
Todd, P., 55, 56, 75
Tversky, A., 12, 119–120, 126, 148
Twine, J., ix
Unger, P., 9
ungrounded Statistical Prediction
Rules, 47–52
unit weight models, 30–31
van der Heijden, A. H. C., 40
Vranas, P., ix
Wedding, D., 13
Weinberg, J., 107, 108, 113, 184
Weiss, M., 51
Wells, G. L., ix, 145, 156
West, R., 133
Wiggins, N., 28
Williams, M., 110
Wilson, T., 156, 170, 176
Wittman, M., 13
Wunderlich, M., ix, 34
Yates, J. F., 134
Zagzebski, L., 183
Ziskin, J., 14
Index 205
Finally, what about significance? The idea that good reasoning is reasoning
about significant matters is, of course, a central idea of the pragmatic
tradition in epistemology. And plenty of non-pragmatists have pointed
out that not all truths are created equal. But in recent years, this point has
been made best by a philosopher of science, Philip Kitcher (1993, 2001).
Not only has Kitcher written forcefully about significance, but the final
chapter of The Advancement of Science (1993; see also his 1990) is a fascinating
attempt to view social epistemology from a cost-benefit perspective.
There are three features of this emerging trend that give reason
for optimism. First, it honors what psychologists have already shown:
Good reasoning is an intricate achievement of busy brains in complex
environments. Second, treating cost-benefit measures as an essential
component in epistemology allows economics and psychology—the current
and future tools of public policy—to recruit and assimilate the
normative, theory-building efforts of properly trained epistemologists.
The third reason for optimism is more self-serving: This approach places
epistemology not just where it belongs, but where this book began—in the
philosophy of science, and in so doing, in science itself.
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Index
ABC Research Group, The, 55, 75
Abela, P., ix
Alexander, S. A., 30
Ameliorative Psychology, 3,
11–16, 26, 54–70, 154–157,
170–171
normative nature of, 14–16, 54–55,
167–169, 169–170
Anderson, E., 81
applied epistemology, 6–7, 17, 24–25,
58–70, 138
See also cost-benefit approach
to epistemology, Four Ways
to improve reasoning,
epistemology (structure of
healthy tradition)
Aristotelian Principle, 19–21, 104–107,
115–116
See also Standard Analytic
Epistemology, relation to
Strategic Reliabilism
Aristotle, 19
Arkes, H., ix, 44, 145
Armstrong, D. M., 10, 182
Ashenfelter, O., 13, 26
Ashmore, D., 13, 26
base rate neglect, 122, 130–132, 139–144
Bayesian reasoning strategy,
139–140
frequency formats vs. Bayesian
reasoning strategy, 143–144
Baum, R., ix
Bazerman, M., 152
Bettman, J. R., 39, 85
biased interpretation of feedback,
42–43
biases
conjunction fallacy, 119, 124
covariation illusions, 37–39
fundamental attribution error, 119,
hindsight bias, 155
interpretation of feedback, 42–43
interview effect, 32, 41–42, 45, 150
regression fallacy, 148–149
self-serving bias (Lake Wobegon
Effect), 44, 119
unrepresentative feedback, 42
See also base rate neglect,
overconfidence, lack of controls
in everyday reasoning
Bloom, R. F., 32
Blumer, C., 145
BonJour, L., 104, 110–111, 112, 171
bootstrapping models, 28–29
Borges, B., 56
Borgida, E., 120
Bowman, E. H., 29
Boyd, R., viii, ix, 96
broken leg problem, 45–52
solution to, 47–52
See also selective defection
Butler, T., ix
Carey, S., 113
Carpenter, R., 13, 57, 66
Carroll, J., 13
Casscells, W., 122, 140
causal reasoning, 147–152
consider-the-control, 148–152
importance of controls, 147–148
policy assessment, 149–151
rare events, 151–152
regression fallacy, 148–149
See also lack of controls in everyday
reasoning
Chapman, J., 37, 38, 39
Chapman, L., 37, 38, 39
Charman, S., 145, 156
Cherniak, C., 68
Chi, M., 113
Chiles, L., 132
Chisholm, R., 104
Christensen, C., 145
circularity objections, 19, 77–78,
164–167
Clement, J., 113
cognitive diversity, 107–109, 133–135
Cohen, L. J., 32, 119, 120, 121, 127,
128, 129–130, 130–131, 132–133,
134, 135, 136, 137, 139
Condorcet’s jury theorem, 34
Conee, E., 180
consider-the-control, 148–152
consider-the-opposite, 145–147
Corrigan, B., 29, 31
cost-benefit analysis, 80–81
air safety, 83
incomplete, 81, 82–83
monetary value on human lives,
82–83
in psychology, 84–85
retirement investment, 81–82
unreduced 81–82
cost-benefit approach to epistemology,
56–57, 79–92, 184–185
cognitive costs, 87–88
cost-benefit imperative in
epistemology, 89–91
diminishing marginal utility,
59–60
epistemic benefits, 85–87
imposing discipline, 91–92
marginal expected reliability, 60–61,
64–65
measurable, 88
problems with, 80
start-up costs, 62–63, 68
See also opportunity costs in
reasoning, Four Ways to improve
reasoning, cost-benefit analysis,
significance
credit scoring, 13, 15, 66
Cruz, J., 119, 127
Csikszentmihalyi, M., 66
Daniels, N., 9
Dasgupta, P., 99
Dawes, R., viii, 12, 13, 14, 26, 28,
29, 30, 31, 33, 35, 36, 37, 40–41,
46, 49, 50, 57, 91, 147, 152,
176–177, 178
debiasing strategies
consider-the-control, 148–152
consider-the-opposite, 145–147
frequency format vs. Bayesian
reasoning strategy, 143–144
frequency formats, 15, 141–144
200 Index
frequency formats vs. probability
formats, 141–142
sequential lineups, 156
DeRose, K., 104, 162, 183
Descartes, R., 157
DeVaul, R. A., 13, 32
diagnostic reasoning, 139–144
Diener, E., 65, 99
Doris, J., 156, 184
Dretske, F., 10, 104, 182
Dublin, L., 82
Dunham, H. W., 31
Ebert, A., 132
Edwards, D., 30
Edwards, J., 30
Einhorn, H. J., 33, 91
epistemic excellence, 16–17, 169–170
epistemic exceptionalism, 43–45
epistemology
and critical thinking courses,
vii–viii, 7, 152–153
future of, 155–157
practical importance of, 6–7, 24–25
structure of healthy tradition, 17–19,
104–105
well-ordered social system of, 18–19,
101–102
See also Aristotelian Principle;
Standard Analytic Epistemology,
features of; Standard Analytic
Epistemology, relations to;
Strategic Reliabilism
Epperson, D., ix
expected range of a reasoning strategy,
71–74
discriminable partition of, 73
natural partition of, 72–73
Faust, D., viii, 14, 40–41, 46, 57
Feldman, R., 7, 110, 178, 180
Filskov, S. B., 13, 47
Firth, R., 103
Fischhoff, B., 44, 45, 145, 146
flat maximum principle, 32–34, 57
Foley, R., 10
folk physics, 113–114
Four Ways to improve reasoning,
58–70
less reliable, less expensive strategy,
69–70
more reliable, more expensive
strategy, 66
more reliable, no more expensive
strategy, 66
resource reallocation, 64–66
frequency formats, 15, 141–144
Frey, B., 99, 170
Friedman, M., 168
fundamental attribution error, 119, 155
generality problem, 178–182
Gettier, E. L., 10, 105
Gigerenzer, G., 15, 55, 56, 57, 75,
120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 126,
127, 131, 132, 137, 139, 140,
141, 142, 143
Gilbert, D., 156, 170
Gilovich, T., 37, 42, 43, 44, 119, 148,
151, 152
Glaser, R., 113
Goldberg, L. R., 13, 14, 28, 29, 47
Goldberg rule, 13, 14–15, 49, 53, 66,
71–72, 89–91, 161
Golden Rule of Predictive Modeling,
12–13, 27
Golding, J. S., 13, 57, 66
Goldman, A., ix, 16, 65, 104, 106,
156, 161, 179, 182, 183, 184
Goldstein, D. G., 55, 56, 57
Goodman, N., 9, 129, 178
Grayboys, T., 122, 140
Griffin, D., 119
grounded Statistical Prediction Rules,
47–52
Grove, W. M., 12, 27, 76
Index 201
Hacking, I., 52
happiness and significant problems,
30–31, 65–66, 93, 98–99
Harman, G., 63, 156, 183
Hastie, R., 35, 36, 37, 152
hedonic psychology, 65–66, 99, 156,
170
affective forecasting, 65, 99, 170
Henrion, M., 145
Hertwig, R., 123
heuristics and biases program,
119–137, 147–152
hindsight bias, 155
Hoffrage, U., 15, 122, 132, 140, 141,
142, 143
Hogarth, R. M., 33
Howard, J. W., 30
impressionistic judgment, 11–17,
37–47
interview effect, 32, 41–42, 45, 150
Johnson, E. J., 85
Johnston, W., 85
justification, theories of, 8–10, 16–17,
22, 54, 104–118, 178–180, 182–184
coherentism, 104, 117
contextualism, 104, 114, 162, 183
foundationalism, 104, 112
reliabilism, 22, 104, 114, 117,
178–180, 182
Kahneman, D., 12, 65, 119–20, 126,
148
Keil, F., 109
Kell, F., viii
Kim, J., 8–9, 105
Kitcher, P., viii, ix, 18, 93, 102,
168, 185
Kohen, E. S., 28
Koriat, A., 146
Kornblith, H., ix, 119, 175
Kupfer, J., ix
lack of controls in everyday reasoning,
41–42, 50–51, 147–152
Lalonde, R., 13, 26
Lane, R., 99
Lehman, D. R., 153
Lehrer, K., 10, 104
Leli, D. A., 13, 47
Lempert, R. O., 153
Lepper, M., 146
Lewis, D., 104
Lichtenstein, S., 44, 45, 145, 146
Lopes, L., 120
Lord, C., 145, 146
Lotka, A., 82
Lovie, A. D., 15, 33, 57, 66
Lovie, P., 15, 33, 57, 66
Maynard Smith, J., 84
Medin, D., 109
Meehl, P., viii, 12, 14, 27, 31, 40, 41,
46, 52, 57, 76
Meltzer, B. N., 31
Mendola, J., ix
Miller, P. M., 134
Milstein, R. M., 32
Monahan, J., 12, 13, 49, 57, 177
Myers, D., 65, 98, 99
naturalism, 22–23, 47, 104
See also circularity objections
naturalist challenge, 109–111, 112–115,
115–116
Newell, A., 40
Nichols, S., 107, 108, 113, 184
Nisbett, R. E., vii–viii, 37, 39, 87, 119,
120, 152, 153, 176
normativity, vii–viii, 6–7, 12–16, 19–21,
54, 102–103, 116–118, 125–133,
135–137, 153, 154–157, 160–163,
167–169, 169–170, 170–171
Oishi, S., 65, 99
Olson, E., 145, 156
202 Index
opportunity costs in reasoning, 57,
67–68, 69, 83–84
Ortmann, A., 56
Oskamp, S., 32
overconfidence, 43–45, 144–147
consider-the-opposite, 145–147
overconfidence feedback loop, 43–45
Pappas, G., 10
Parker, G. A., 84
Passell, P., 27
Pavela, G., ix
Paxson, T. D., Jr., 10
Payne, J. W., 85
Petty, W., 82
philosophy of science approach to
epistemology, 11–21
Piatelli-Palmarini, M., 32, 120, 125
Pisoni, D., viii
Plantinga, A., 111
Plous, S., 69, 146
Pollack, J., 104, 119, 127
Porter, T., 82
Preston, E., 146
proper linear models, 26–28
Putnam, H., 171
Quine, W. V. O., 84, 111
Quinsey, V. L., 17, 46, 48
Railton, P., 96
Ramachandran, V. S., ix
random linear models, 29–30
range of a reasoning strategy. See
expected range of a reasoning
strategy
Rawls, J., 9
reasoning strategies, 17, 71–78,
139–144
recognition heuristic, 55–56
less-is-more effect, 55
not robust, 56
Rees, E., 113
reject-the-norm arguments, 120–133
Cohen’s, 121, 127–133, 135–136
conceptual, 120, 121–133
empirical, 120–121
Gigerenzer’s, 121, 123–127
reliability
importance in Ameliorative
Psychology, 55–56
resource dependent notion, 61
robust, 55–56
reliability score
importance of, 76–77
observed, 72
for probabilistic reasoning strategies,
173–174
real, 71–74
Remez, R., ix
Robinson, B., ix
robust reliability, 55–56
Ross, L., vii–viii, 37, 39, 119, 155
Sawyer, J., 47
Schoenberger, A., 122, 140
Schwab, A., ix
selective defection, 45–53, 90–91
accepting error to make fewer
errors, 91
failures of, 13, 46–47, 49–52,
90–92
licensed by Standard Analytic
Epistemology, 53
success of, 47–49
Seligman, M., 65, 99
Sen, A., 81
Shepard, R., ix
Sieck, W. R., 44, 134
significance, 57–58, 65–66, 69–70,
85–87, 93–103, 156, 163, 185
in Ameliorative Psychology,
57–58
applied to the discipline of
epistemology, 103
availability problem, 99–102
Index 203
significance (continued)
demands placed on reasoners,
100–101
insignificance, 97
lost causes, 97–98
negative significance, 98–99, 102
reason-based account of, 95–97
role in epistemology, 93–95
thick-thin problem, 95
and well-being, 93, 98–99
See also cost-benefit approach to
epistemology
Simon, H., 40, 68
skepticism, 160–163
Sklar, L., 62
Slovic, P., 12, 44, 145
Smith, E., 109
Sober, E., 22
social epistemology, 101, 156
Sosa, E., 183
Spelke, E. S., 113
SPR. See Statistical Prediction Rules
Stalnaker, R., viii
Standard Analytic Epistemology,
features of
as armchair anthropology, 107–109,
184
case from expertise, 114–115
characterization of, 4, 8
conservative, 11
descriptive core of, 105, 107–109
Gettier problem, 10, 105
goal of, 16
jumped the shark, 22
licenses selective defection strategy,
53
naturalistic challenge, 109–111,
112–115
normative failures, 18, 21–23, 79–80,
144, 171, 172
reflective equilibrium, 9, 129
reverse engineering of, 106–107
stasis requirement, 8–11, 105–106
Standard Analytic Epistemology,
relation to
Ameliorative Psychology, 15–16,
114–115
Aristotelian Principle, 104–107
philosophy of science approach,
11–21
psychology, 154–155
Strategic Reliabilism, 17, 116–118,
182–185
Stanovich, K., 133, 134, 135, 145
start-up costs, 62–63, 68
stasis requirement, 8–11, 105–106
Statistical Prediction Rules (SPRs),
3, 12–16, 24–53, 57–58
abuse, potential for, 175–177
academic success prediction rule
(ASPR), 72–74, 179–181
bootstrapping models, 28–29
credit scoring, 13, 15, 66
F minus F Rule, 30–31, 47–48,
49, 53
Goldberg rule, 13, 14–15, 49, 53, 66,
71–72, 89–91, 161
grounded and ungrounded,
47–52
human performance predictor
(HPP), 179–181
list of examples, 13–14
proper linear models, 26–28
prostate cancer SPR, 48
random linear models, 29–30
Sudden Infant Death Syndrome
SPR, 13, 66
unit weight models, 30–31
Violence Risk Appraisal Guide
(VRAG), 46, 48, 49–50
wine predictor, 26–27
See also success of Statistical
Prediction Rules
Stein, E., 119, 120, 132
Stich, S., viii, ix, 16, 78, 100, 107, 108,
113, 119, 183, 184
204 Index
Stillwell, W., 13, 66
Stine, G. 132
story-telling, 50–52, 148–152
Strategic Reliabilism, 4, 71, 138,
170–171, 178–182
applied, 119–137, 138–157
availability problem, 101–102
counterexamples, 171–173
descriptive core of, 104
epistemic excellence, 16–17, 169–170
explains success of Ameliorative
Psychology, 175
explains success of Aristotelian
Principle, 174–175
generality problem, 178–182
goal of guiding reason, 162,
172, 181
inessential codicil, 116–118
naturalist challenge, 115–116
problem of environmental disparity,
72–74
reasoning strategies, 17, 71–78,
139–144
and virtue epistemology, 183–184
vs. the theories of Standard Analytic
Epistemology, 116–118,
182–185
See also philosophy of science
approach to epistemology,
expected range of a reasoning
strategy
Strayer, D. L., 85
Strevens, M., ix, 34, 36
Stutzer, A., 99, 170
success of Statistical Prediction Rules
and claims to native epistemic
expertise, 53
explanation for, 32–37
Golden Rule of Predictive Modeling,
12–13, 27
unfair test against experts, 31–32
Sunstein, C., 83, 84, 166
Swain, M., 10
Swets, J., 12, 13, 49, 57
Take the Best, 57
Takemura, K., 134
Thomson, L., 152
Thornton, B., 30
Todd, P., 55, 56, 75
Tversky, A., 12, 119–120, 126, 148
Twine, J., ix
Unger, P., 9
ungrounded Statistical Prediction
Rules, 47–52
unit weight models, 30–31
van der Heijden, A. H. C., 40
Vranas, P., ix
Wedding, D., 13
Weinberg, J., 107, 108, 113, 184
Weiss, M., 51
Wells, G. L., ix, 145, 156
West, R., 133
Wiggins, N., 28
Williams, M., 110
Wilson, T., 156, 170, 176
Wittman, M., 13
Wunderlich, M., ix, 34
Yates, J. F., 134
Zagzebski, L., 183
Ziskin, J., 14
Index 205