11.4. Significance

К оглавлению1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 
34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 
51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 
68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 

Finally, what about significance? The idea that good reasoning is reasoning

about significant matters is, of course, a central idea of the pragmatic

tradition in epistemology. And plenty of non-pragmatists have pointed

out that not all truths are created equal. But in recent years, this point has

been made best by a philosopher of science, Philip Kitcher (1993, 2001).

Not only has Kitcher written forcefully about significance, but the final

chapter of The Advancement of Science (1993; see also his 1990) is a fascinating

attempt to view social epistemology from a cost-benefit perspective.

There are three features of this emerging trend that give reason

for optimism. First, it honors what psychologists have already shown:

Good reasoning is an intricate achievement of busy brains in complex

environments. Second, treating cost-benefit measures as an essential

component in epistemology allows economics and psychology—the current

and future tools of public policy—to recruit and assimilate the

normative, theory-building efforts of properly trained epistemologists.

The third reason for optimism is more self-serving: This approach places

epistemology not just where it belongs, but where this book began—in the

philosophy of science, and in so doing, in science itself.

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Index

ABC Research Group, The, 55, 75

Abela, P., ix

Alexander, S. A., 30

Ameliorative Psychology, 3,

11–16, 26, 54–70, 154–157,

170–171

normative nature of, 14–16, 54–55,

167–169, 169–170

Anderson, E., 81

applied epistemology, 6–7, 17, 24–25,

58–70, 138

See also cost-benefit approach

to epistemology, Four Ways

to improve reasoning,

epistemology (structure of

healthy tradition)

Aristotelian Principle, 19–21, 104–107,

115–116

See also Standard Analytic

Epistemology, relation to

Strategic Reliabilism

Aristotle, 19

Arkes, H., ix, 44, 145

Armstrong, D. M., 10, 182

Ashenfelter, O., 13, 26

Ashmore, D., 13, 26

base rate neglect, 122, 130–132, 139–144

Bayesian reasoning strategy,

139–140

frequency formats vs. Bayesian

reasoning strategy, 143–144

Baum, R., ix

Bazerman, M., 152

Bettman, J. R., 39, 85

biased interpretation of feedback,

42–43

biases

conjunction fallacy, 119, 124

covariation illusions, 37–39

fundamental attribution error, 119,

hindsight bias, 155

interpretation of feedback, 42–43

interview effect, 32, 41–42, 45, 150

regression fallacy, 148–149

self-serving bias (Lake Wobegon

Effect), 44, 119

unrepresentative feedback, 42

See also base rate neglect,

overconfidence, lack of controls

in everyday reasoning

Bloom, R. F., 32

Blumer, C., 145

BonJour, L., 104, 110–111, 112, 171

bootstrapping models, 28–29

Borges, B., 56

Borgida, E., 120

Bowman, E. H., 29

Boyd, R., viii, ix, 96

broken leg problem, 45–52

solution to, 47–52

See also selective defection

Butler, T., ix

Carey, S., 113

Carpenter, R., 13, 57, 66

Carroll, J., 13

Casscells, W., 122, 140

causal reasoning, 147–152

consider-the-control, 148–152

importance of controls, 147–148

policy assessment, 149–151

rare events, 151–152

regression fallacy, 148–149

See also lack of controls in everyday

reasoning

Chapman, J., 37, 38, 39

Chapman, L., 37, 38, 39

Charman, S., 145, 156

Cherniak, C., 68

Chi, M., 113

Chiles, L., 132

Chisholm, R., 104

Christensen, C., 145

circularity objections, 19, 77–78,

164–167

Clement, J., 113

cognitive diversity, 107–109, 133–135

Cohen, L. J., 32, 119, 120, 121, 127,

128, 129–130, 130–131, 132–133,

134, 135, 136, 137, 139

Condorcet’s jury theorem, 34

Conee, E., 180

consider-the-control, 148–152

consider-the-opposite, 145–147

Corrigan, B., 29, 31

cost-benefit analysis, 80–81

air safety, 83

incomplete, 81, 82–83

monetary value on human lives,

82–83

in psychology, 84–85

retirement investment, 81–82

unreduced 81–82

cost-benefit approach to epistemology,

56–57, 79–92, 184–185

cognitive costs, 87–88

cost-benefit imperative in

epistemology, 89–91

diminishing marginal utility,

59–60

epistemic benefits, 85–87

imposing discipline, 91–92

marginal expected reliability, 60–61,

64–65

measurable, 88

problems with, 80

start-up costs, 62–63, 68

See also opportunity costs in

reasoning, Four Ways to improve

reasoning, cost-benefit analysis,

significance

credit scoring, 13, 15, 66

Cruz, J., 119, 127

Csikszentmihalyi, M., 66

Daniels, N., 9

Dasgupta, P., 99

Dawes, R., viii, 12, 13, 14, 26, 28,

29, 30, 31, 33, 35, 36, 37, 40–41,

46, 49, 50, 57, 91, 147, 152,

176–177, 178

debiasing strategies

consider-the-control, 148–152

consider-the-opposite, 145–147

frequency format vs. Bayesian

reasoning strategy, 143–144

frequency formats, 15, 141–144

200 Index

frequency formats vs. probability

formats, 141–142

sequential lineups, 156

DeRose, K., 104, 162, 183

Descartes, R., 157

DeVaul, R. A., 13, 32

diagnostic reasoning, 139–144

Diener, E., 65, 99

Doris, J., 156, 184

Dretske, F., 10, 104, 182

Dublin, L., 82

Dunham, H. W., 31

Ebert, A., 132

Edwards, D., 30

Edwards, J., 30

Einhorn, H. J., 33, 91

epistemic excellence, 16–17, 169–170

epistemic exceptionalism, 43–45

epistemology

and critical thinking courses,

vii–viii, 7, 152–153

future of, 155–157

practical importance of, 6–7, 24–25

structure of healthy tradition, 17–19,

104–105

well-ordered social system of, 18–19,

101–102

See also Aristotelian Principle;

Standard Analytic Epistemology,

features of; Standard Analytic

Epistemology, relations to;

Strategic Reliabilism

Epperson, D., ix

expected range of a reasoning strategy,

71–74

discriminable partition of, 73

natural partition of, 72–73

Faust, D., viii, 14, 40–41, 46, 57

Feldman, R., 7, 110, 178, 180

Filskov, S. B., 13, 47

Firth, R., 103

Fischhoff, B., 44, 45, 145, 146

flat maximum principle, 32–34, 57

Foley, R., 10

folk physics, 113–114

Four Ways to improve reasoning,

58–70

less reliable, less expensive strategy,

69–70

more reliable, more expensive

strategy, 66

more reliable, no more expensive

strategy, 66

resource reallocation, 64–66

frequency formats, 15, 141–144

Frey, B., 99, 170

Friedman, M., 168

fundamental attribution error, 119, 155

generality problem, 178–182

Gettier, E. L., 10, 105

Gigerenzer, G., 15, 55, 56, 57, 75,

120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 126,

127, 131, 132, 137, 139, 140,

141, 142, 143

Gilbert, D., 156, 170

Gilovich, T., 37, 42, 43, 44, 119, 148,

151, 152

Glaser, R., 113

Goldberg, L. R., 13, 14, 28, 29, 47

Goldberg rule, 13, 14–15, 49, 53, 66,

71–72, 89–91, 161

Golden Rule of Predictive Modeling,

12–13, 27

Golding, J. S., 13, 57, 66

Goldman, A., ix, 16, 65, 104, 106,

156, 161, 179, 182, 183, 184

Goldstein, D. G., 55, 56, 57

Goodman, N., 9, 129, 178

Grayboys, T., 122, 140

Griffin, D., 119

grounded Statistical Prediction Rules,

47–52

Grove, W. M., 12, 27, 76

Index 201

Hacking, I., 52

happiness and significant problems,

30–31, 65–66, 93, 98–99

Harman, G., 63, 156, 183

Hastie, R., 35, 36, 37, 152

hedonic psychology, 65–66, 99, 156,

170

affective forecasting, 65, 99, 170

Henrion, M., 145

Hertwig, R., 123

heuristics and biases program,

119–137, 147–152

hindsight bias, 155

Hoffrage, U., 15, 122, 132, 140, 141,

142, 143

Hogarth, R. M., 33

Howard, J. W., 30

impressionistic judgment, 11–17,

37–47

interview effect, 32, 41–42, 45, 150

Johnson, E. J., 85

Johnston, W., 85

justification, theories of, 8–10, 16–17,

22, 54, 104–118, 178–180, 182–184

coherentism, 104, 117

contextualism, 104, 114, 162, 183

foundationalism, 104, 112

reliabilism, 22, 104, 114, 117,

178–180, 182

Kahneman, D., 12, 65, 119–20, 126,

148

Keil, F., 109

Kell, F., viii

Kim, J., 8–9, 105

Kitcher, P., viii, ix, 18, 93, 102,

168, 185

Kohen, E. S., 28

Koriat, A., 146

Kornblith, H., ix, 119, 175

Kupfer, J., ix

lack of controls in everyday reasoning,

41–42, 50–51, 147–152

Lalonde, R., 13, 26

Lane, R., 99

Lehman, D. R., 153

Lehrer, K., 10, 104

Leli, D. A., 13, 47

Lempert, R. O., 153

Lepper, M., 146

Lewis, D., 104

Lichtenstein, S., 44, 45, 145, 146

Lopes, L., 120

Lord, C., 145, 146

Lotka, A., 82

Lovie, A. D., 15, 33, 57, 66

Lovie, P., 15, 33, 57, 66

Maynard Smith, J., 84

Medin, D., 109

Meehl, P., viii, 12, 14, 27, 31, 40, 41,

46, 52, 57, 76

Meltzer, B. N., 31

Mendola, J., ix

Miller, P. M., 134

Milstein, R. M., 32

Monahan, J., 12, 13, 49, 57, 177

Myers, D., 65, 98, 99

naturalism, 22–23, 47, 104

See also circularity objections

naturalist challenge, 109–111, 112–115,

115–116

Newell, A., 40

Nichols, S., 107, 108, 113, 184

Nisbett, R. E., vii–viii, 37, 39, 87, 119,

120, 152, 153, 176

normativity, vii–viii, 6–7, 12–16, 19–21,

54, 102–103, 116–118, 125–133,

135–137, 153, 154–157, 160–163,

167–169, 169–170, 170–171

Oishi, S., 65, 99

Olson, E., 145, 156

202 Index

opportunity costs in reasoning, 57,

67–68, 69, 83–84

Ortmann, A., 56

Oskamp, S., 32

overconfidence, 43–45, 144–147

consider-the-opposite, 145–147

overconfidence feedback loop, 43–45

Pappas, G., 10

Parker, G. A., 84

Passell, P., 27

Pavela, G., ix

Paxson, T. D., Jr., 10

Payne, J. W., 85

Petty, W., 82

philosophy of science approach to

epistemology, 11–21

Piatelli-Palmarini, M., 32, 120, 125

Pisoni, D., viii

Plantinga, A., 111

Plous, S., 69, 146

Pollack, J., 104, 119, 127

Porter, T., 82

Preston, E., 146

proper linear models, 26–28

Putnam, H., 171

Quine, W. V. O., 84, 111

Quinsey, V. L., 17, 46, 48

Railton, P., 96

Ramachandran, V. S., ix

random linear models, 29–30

range of a reasoning strategy. See

expected range of a reasoning

strategy

Rawls, J., 9

reasoning strategies, 17, 71–78,

139–144

recognition heuristic, 55–56

less-is-more effect, 55

not robust, 56

Rees, E., 113

reject-the-norm arguments, 120–133

Cohen’s, 121, 127–133, 135–136

conceptual, 120, 121–133

empirical, 120–121

Gigerenzer’s, 121, 123–127

reliability

importance in Ameliorative

Psychology, 55–56

resource dependent notion, 61

robust, 55–56

reliability score

importance of, 76–77

observed, 72

for probabilistic reasoning strategies,

173–174

real, 71–74

Remez, R., ix

Robinson, B., ix

robust reliability, 55–56

Ross, L., vii–viii, 37, 39, 119, 155

Sawyer, J., 47

Schoenberger, A., 122, 140

Schwab, A., ix

selective defection, 45–53, 90–91

accepting error to make fewer

errors, 91

failures of, 13, 46–47, 49–52,

90–92

licensed by Standard Analytic

Epistemology, 53

success of, 47–49

Seligman, M., 65, 99

Sen, A., 81

Shepard, R., ix

Sieck, W. R., 44, 134

significance, 57–58, 65–66, 69–70,

85–87, 93–103, 156, 163, 185

in Ameliorative Psychology,

57–58

applied to the discipline of

epistemology, 103

availability problem, 99–102

Index 203

significance (continued)

demands placed on reasoners,

100–101

insignificance, 97

lost causes, 97–98

negative significance, 98–99, 102

reason-based account of, 95–97

role in epistemology, 93–95

thick-thin problem, 95

and well-being, 93, 98–99

See also cost-benefit approach to

epistemology

Simon, H., 40, 68

skepticism, 160–163

Sklar, L., 62

Slovic, P., 12, 44, 145

Smith, E., 109

Sober, E., 22

social epistemology, 101, 156

Sosa, E., 183

Spelke, E. S., 113

SPR. See Statistical Prediction Rules

Stalnaker, R., viii

Standard Analytic Epistemology,

features of

as armchair anthropology, 107–109,

184

case from expertise, 114–115

characterization of, 4, 8

conservative, 11

descriptive core of, 105, 107–109

Gettier problem, 10, 105

goal of, 16

jumped the shark, 22

licenses selective defection strategy,

53

naturalistic challenge, 109–111,

112–115

normative failures, 18, 21–23, 79–80,

144, 171, 172

reflective equilibrium, 9, 129

reverse engineering of, 106–107

stasis requirement, 8–11, 105–106

Standard Analytic Epistemology,

relation to

Ameliorative Psychology, 15–16,

114–115

Aristotelian Principle, 104–107

philosophy of science approach,

11–21

psychology, 154–155

Strategic Reliabilism, 17, 116–118,

182–185

Stanovich, K., 133, 134, 135, 145

start-up costs, 62–63, 68

stasis requirement, 8–11, 105–106

Statistical Prediction Rules (SPRs),

3, 12–16, 24–53, 57–58

abuse, potential for, 175–177

academic success prediction rule

(ASPR), 72–74, 179–181

bootstrapping models, 28–29

credit scoring, 13, 15, 66

F minus F Rule, 30–31, 47–48,

49, 53

Goldberg rule, 13, 14–15, 49, 53, 66,

71–72, 89–91, 161

grounded and ungrounded,

47–52

human performance predictor

(HPP), 179–181

list of examples, 13–14

proper linear models, 26–28

prostate cancer SPR, 48

random linear models, 29–30

Sudden Infant Death Syndrome

SPR, 13, 66

unit weight models, 30–31

Violence Risk Appraisal Guide

(VRAG), 46, 48, 49–50

wine predictor, 26–27

See also success of Statistical

Prediction Rules

Stein, E., 119, 120, 132

Stich, S., viii, ix, 16, 78, 100, 107, 108,

113, 119, 183, 184

204 Index

Stillwell, W., 13, 66

Stine, G. 132

story-telling, 50–52, 148–152

Strategic Reliabilism, 4, 71, 138,

170–171, 178–182

applied, 119–137, 138–157

availability problem, 101–102

counterexamples, 171–173

descriptive core of, 104

epistemic excellence, 16–17, 169–170

explains success of Ameliorative

Psychology, 175

explains success of Aristotelian

Principle, 174–175

generality problem, 178–182

goal of guiding reason, 162,

172, 181

inessential codicil, 116–118

naturalist challenge, 115–116

problem of environmental disparity,

72–74

reasoning strategies, 17, 71–78,

139–144

and virtue epistemology, 183–184

vs. the theories of Standard Analytic

Epistemology, 116–118,

182–185

See also philosophy of science

approach to epistemology,

expected range of a reasoning

strategy

Strayer, D. L., 85

Strevens, M., ix, 34, 36

Stutzer, A., 99, 170

success of Statistical Prediction Rules

and claims to native epistemic

expertise, 53

explanation for, 32–37

Golden Rule of Predictive Modeling,

12–13, 27

unfair test against experts, 31–32

Sunstein, C., 83, 84, 166

Swain, M., 10

Swets, J., 12, 13, 49, 57

Take the Best, 57

Takemura, K., 134

Thomson, L., 152

Thornton, B., 30

Todd, P., 55, 56, 75

Tversky, A., 12, 119–120, 126, 148

Twine, J., ix

Unger, P., 9

ungrounded Statistical Prediction

Rules, 47–52

unit weight models, 30–31

van der Heijden, A. H. C., 40

Vranas, P., ix

Wedding, D., 13

Weinberg, J., 107, 108, 113, 184

Weiss, M., 51

Wells, G. L., ix, 145, 156

West, R., 133

Wiggins, N., 28

Williams, M., 110

Wilson, T., 156, 170, 176

Wittman, M., 13

Wunderlich, M., ix, 34

Yates, J. F., 134

Zagzebski, L., 183

Ziskin, J., 14

Index 205

Finally, what about significance? The idea that good reasoning is reasoning

about significant matters is, of course, a central idea of the pragmatic

tradition in epistemology. And plenty of non-pragmatists have pointed

out that not all truths are created equal. But in recent years, this point has

been made best by a philosopher of science, Philip Kitcher (1993, 2001).

Not only has Kitcher written forcefully about significance, but the final

chapter of The Advancement of Science (1993; see also his 1990) is a fascinating

attempt to view social epistemology from a cost-benefit perspective.

There are three features of this emerging trend that give reason

for optimism. First, it honors what psychologists have already shown:

Good reasoning is an intricate achievement of busy brains in complex

environments. Second, treating cost-benefit measures as an essential

component in epistemology allows economics and psychology—the current

and future tools of public policy—to recruit and assimilate the

normative, theory-building efforts of properly trained epistemologists.

The third reason for optimism is more self-serving: This approach places

epistemology not just where it belongs, but where this book began—in the

philosophy of science, and in so doing, in science itself.

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Index

ABC Research Group, The, 55, 75

Abela, P., ix

Alexander, S. A., 30

Ameliorative Psychology, 3,

11–16, 26, 54–70, 154–157,

170–171

normative nature of, 14–16, 54–55,

167–169, 169–170

Anderson, E., 81

applied epistemology, 6–7, 17, 24–25,

58–70, 138

See also cost-benefit approach

to epistemology, Four Ways

to improve reasoning,

epistemology (structure of

healthy tradition)

Aristotelian Principle, 19–21, 104–107,

115–116

See also Standard Analytic

Epistemology, relation to

Strategic Reliabilism

Aristotle, 19

Arkes, H., ix, 44, 145

Armstrong, D. M., 10, 182

Ashenfelter, O., 13, 26

Ashmore, D., 13, 26

base rate neglect, 122, 130–132, 139–144

Bayesian reasoning strategy,

139–140

frequency formats vs. Bayesian

reasoning strategy, 143–144

Baum, R., ix

Bazerman, M., 152

Bettman, J. R., 39, 85

biased interpretation of feedback,

42–43

biases

conjunction fallacy, 119, 124

covariation illusions, 37–39

fundamental attribution error, 119,

hindsight bias, 155

interpretation of feedback, 42–43

interview effect, 32, 41–42, 45, 150

regression fallacy, 148–149

self-serving bias (Lake Wobegon

Effect), 44, 119

unrepresentative feedback, 42

See also base rate neglect,

overconfidence, lack of controls

in everyday reasoning

Bloom, R. F., 32

Blumer, C., 145

BonJour, L., 104, 110–111, 112, 171

bootstrapping models, 28–29

Borges, B., 56

Borgida, E., 120

Bowman, E. H., 29

Boyd, R., viii, ix, 96

broken leg problem, 45–52

solution to, 47–52

See also selective defection

Butler, T., ix

Carey, S., 113

Carpenter, R., 13, 57, 66

Carroll, J., 13

Casscells, W., 122, 140

causal reasoning, 147–152

consider-the-control, 148–152

importance of controls, 147–148

policy assessment, 149–151

rare events, 151–152

regression fallacy, 148–149

See also lack of controls in everyday

reasoning

Chapman, J., 37, 38, 39

Chapman, L., 37, 38, 39

Charman, S., 145, 156

Cherniak, C., 68

Chi, M., 113

Chiles, L., 132

Chisholm, R., 104

Christensen, C., 145

circularity objections, 19, 77–78,

164–167

Clement, J., 113

cognitive diversity, 107–109, 133–135

Cohen, L. J., 32, 119, 120, 121, 127,

128, 129–130, 130–131, 132–133,

134, 135, 136, 137, 139

Condorcet’s jury theorem, 34

Conee, E., 180

consider-the-control, 148–152

consider-the-opposite, 145–147

Corrigan, B., 29, 31

cost-benefit analysis, 80–81

air safety, 83

incomplete, 81, 82–83

monetary value on human lives,

82–83

in psychology, 84–85

retirement investment, 81–82

unreduced 81–82

cost-benefit approach to epistemology,

56–57, 79–92, 184–185

cognitive costs, 87–88

cost-benefit imperative in

epistemology, 89–91

diminishing marginal utility,

59–60

epistemic benefits, 85–87

imposing discipline, 91–92

marginal expected reliability, 60–61,

64–65

measurable, 88

problems with, 80

start-up costs, 62–63, 68

See also opportunity costs in

reasoning, Four Ways to improve

reasoning, cost-benefit analysis,

significance

credit scoring, 13, 15, 66

Cruz, J., 119, 127

Csikszentmihalyi, M., 66

Daniels, N., 9

Dasgupta, P., 99

Dawes, R., viii, 12, 13, 14, 26, 28,

29, 30, 31, 33, 35, 36, 37, 40–41,

46, 49, 50, 57, 91, 147, 152,

176–177, 178

debiasing strategies

consider-the-control, 148–152

consider-the-opposite, 145–147

frequency format vs. Bayesian

reasoning strategy, 143–144

frequency formats, 15, 141–144

200 Index

frequency formats vs. probability

formats, 141–142

sequential lineups, 156

DeRose, K., 104, 162, 183

Descartes, R., 157

DeVaul, R. A., 13, 32

diagnostic reasoning, 139–144

Diener, E., 65, 99

Doris, J., 156, 184

Dretske, F., 10, 104, 182

Dublin, L., 82

Dunham, H. W., 31

Ebert, A., 132

Edwards, D., 30

Edwards, J., 30

Einhorn, H. J., 33, 91

epistemic excellence, 16–17, 169–170

epistemic exceptionalism, 43–45

epistemology

and critical thinking courses,

vii–viii, 7, 152–153

future of, 155–157

practical importance of, 6–7, 24–25

structure of healthy tradition, 17–19,

104–105

well-ordered social system of, 18–19,

101–102

See also Aristotelian Principle;

Standard Analytic Epistemology,

features of; Standard Analytic

Epistemology, relations to;

Strategic Reliabilism

Epperson, D., ix

expected range of a reasoning strategy,

71–74

discriminable partition of, 73

natural partition of, 72–73

Faust, D., viii, 14, 40–41, 46, 57

Feldman, R., 7, 110, 178, 180

Filskov, S. B., 13, 47

Firth, R., 103

Fischhoff, B., 44, 45, 145, 146

flat maximum principle, 32–34, 57

Foley, R., 10

folk physics, 113–114

Four Ways to improve reasoning,

58–70

less reliable, less expensive strategy,

69–70

more reliable, more expensive

strategy, 66

more reliable, no more expensive

strategy, 66

resource reallocation, 64–66

frequency formats, 15, 141–144

Frey, B., 99, 170

Friedman, M., 168

fundamental attribution error, 119, 155

generality problem, 178–182

Gettier, E. L., 10, 105

Gigerenzer, G., 15, 55, 56, 57, 75,

120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 126,

127, 131, 132, 137, 139, 140,

141, 142, 143

Gilbert, D., 156, 170

Gilovich, T., 37, 42, 43, 44, 119, 148,

151, 152

Glaser, R., 113

Goldberg, L. R., 13, 14, 28, 29, 47

Goldberg rule, 13, 14–15, 49, 53, 66,

71–72, 89–91, 161

Golden Rule of Predictive Modeling,

12–13, 27

Golding, J. S., 13, 57, 66

Goldman, A., ix, 16, 65, 104, 106,

156, 161, 179, 182, 183, 184

Goldstein, D. G., 55, 56, 57

Goodman, N., 9, 129, 178

Grayboys, T., 122, 140

Griffin, D., 119

grounded Statistical Prediction Rules,

47–52

Grove, W. M., 12, 27, 76

Index 201

Hacking, I., 52

happiness and significant problems,

30–31, 65–66, 93, 98–99

Harman, G., 63, 156, 183

Hastie, R., 35, 36, 37, 152

hedonic psychology, 65–66, 99, 156,

170

affective forecasting, 65, 99, 170

Henrion, M., 145

Hertwig, R., 123

heuristics and biases program,

119–137, 147–152

hindsight bias, 155

Hoffrage, U., 15, 122, 132, 140, 141,

142, 143

Hogarth, R. M., 33

Howard, J. W., 30

impressionistic judgment, 11–17,

37–47

interview effect, 32, 41–42, 45, 150

Johnson, E. J., 85

Johnston, W., 85

justification, theories of, 8–10, 16–17,

22, 54, 104–118, 178–180, 182–184

coherentism, 104, 117

contextualism, 104, 114, 162, 183

foundationalism, 104, 112

reliabilism, 22, 104, 114, 117,

178–180, 182

Kahneman, D., 12, 65, 119–20, 126,

148

Keil, F., 109

Kell, F., viii

Kim, J., 8–9, 105

Kitcher, P., viii, ix, 18, 93, 102,

168, 185

Kohen, E. S., 28

Koriat, A., 146

Kornblith, H., ix, 119, 175

Kupfer, J., ix

lack of controls in everyday reasoning,

41–42, 50–51, 147–152

Lalonde, R., 13, 26

Lane, R., 99

Lehman, D. R., 153

Lehrer, K., 10, 104

Leli, D. A., 13, 47

Lempert, R. O., 153

Lepper, M., 146

Lewis, D., 104

Lichtenstein, S., 44, 45, 145, 146

Lopes, L., 120

Lord, C., 145, 146

Lotka, A., 82

Lovie, A. D., 15, 33, 57, 66

Lovie, P., 15, 33, 57, 66

Maynard Smith, J., 84

Medin, D., 109

Meehl, P., viii, 12, 14, 27, 31, 40, 41,

46, 52, 57, 76

Meltzer, B. N., 31

Mendola, J., ix

Miller, P. M., 134

Milstein, R. M., 32

Monahan, J., 12, 13, 49, 57, 177

Myers, D., 65, 98, 99

naturalism, 22–23, 47, 104

See also circularity objections

naturalist challenge, 109–111, 112–115,

115–116

Newell, A., 40

Nichols, S., 107, 108, 113, 184

Nisbett, R. E., vii–viii, 37, 39, 87, 119,

120, 152, 153, 176

normativity, vii–viii, 6–7, 12–16, 19–21,

54, 102–103, 116–118, 125–133,

135–137, 153, 154–157, 160–163,

167–169, 169–170, 170–171

Oishi, S., 65, 99

Olson, E., 145, 156

202 Index

opportunity costs in reasoning, 57,

67–68, 69, 83–84

Ortmann, A., 56

Oskamp, S., 32

overconfidence, 43–45, 144–147

consider-the-opposite, 145–147

overconfidence feedback loop, 43–45

Pappas, G., 10

Parker, G. A., 84

Passell, P., 27

Pavela, G., ix

Paxson, T. D., Jr., 10

Payne, J. W., 85

Petty, W., 82

philosophy of science approach to

epistemology, 11–21

Piatelli-Palmarini, M., 32, 120, 125

Pisoni, D., viii

Plantinga, A., 111

Plous, S., 69, 146

Pollack, J., 104, 119, 127

Porter, T., 82

Preston, E., 146

proper linear models, 26–28

Putnam, H., 171

Quine, W. V. O., 84, 111

Quinsey, V. L., 17, 46, 48

Railton, P., 96

Ramachandran, V. S., ix

random linear models, 29–30

range of a reasoning strategy. See

expected range of a reasoning

strategy

Rawls, J., 9

reasoning strategies, 17, 71–78,

139–144

recognition heuristic, 55–56

less-is-more effect, 55

not robust, 56

Rees, E., 113

reject-the-norm arguments, 120–133

Cohen’s, 121, 127–133, 135–136

conceptual, 120, 121–133

empirical, 120–121

Gigerenzer’s, 121, 123–127

reliability

importance in Ameliorative

Psychology, 55–56

resource dependent notion, 61

robust, 55–56

reliability score

importance of, 76–77

observed, 72

for probabilistic reasoning strategies,

173–174

real, 71–74

Remez, R., ix

Robinson, B., ix

robust reliability, 55–56

Ross, L., vii–viii, 37, 39, 119, 155

Sawyer, J., 47

Schoenberger, A., 122, 140

Schwab, A., ix

selective defection, 45–53, 90–91

accepting error to make fewer

errors, 91

failures of, 13, 46–47, 49–52,

90–92

licensed by Standard Analytic

Epistemology, 53

success of, 47–49

Seligman, M., 65, 99

Sen, A., 81

Shepard, R., ix

Sieck, W. R., 44, 134

significance, 57–58, 65–66, 69–70,

85–87, 93–103, 156, 163, 185

in Ameliorative Psychology,

57–58

applied to the discipline of

epistemology, 103

availability problem, 99–102

Index 203

significance (continued)

demands placed on reasoners,

100–101

insignificance, 97

lost causes, 97–98

negative significance, 98–99, 102

reason-based account of, 95–97

role in epistemology, 93–95

thick-thin problem, 95

and well-being, 93, 98–99

See also cost-benefit approach to

epistemology

Simon, H., 40, 68

skepticism, 160–163

Sklar, L., 62

Slovic, P., 12, 44, 145

Smith, E., 109

Sober, E., 22

social epistemology, 101, 156

Sosa, E., 183

Spelke, E. S., 113

SPR. See Statistical Prediction Rules

Stalnaker, R., viii

Standard Analytic Epistemology,

features of

as armchair anthropology, 107–109,

184

case from expertise, 114–115

characterization of, 4, 8

conservative, 11

descriptive core of, 105, 107–109

Gettier problem, 10, 105

goal of, 16

jumped the shark, 22

licenses selective defection strategy,

53

naturalistic challenge, 109–111,

112–115

normative failures, 18, 21–23, 79–80,

144, 171, 172

reflective equilibrium, 9, 129

reverse engineering of, 106–107

stasis requirement, 8–11, 105–106

Standard Analytic Epistemology,

relation to

Ameliorative Psychology, 15–16,

114–115

Aristotelian Principle, 104–107

philosophy of science approach,

11–21

psychology, 154–155

Strategic Reliabilism, 17, 116–118,

182–185

Stanovich, K., 133, 134, 135, 145

start-up costs, 62–63, 68

stasis requirement, 8–11, 105–106

Statistical Prediction Rules (SPRs),

3, 12–16, 24–53, 57–58

abuse, potential for, 175–177

academic success prediction rule

(ASPR), 72–74, 179–181

bootstrapping models, 28–29

credit scoring, 13, 15, 66

F minus F Rule, 30–31, 47–48,

49, 53

Goldberg rule, 13, 14–15, 49, 53, 66,

71–72, 89–91, 161

grounded and ungrounded,

47–52

human performance predictor

(HPP), 179–181

list of examples, 13–14

proper linear models, 26–28

prostate cancer SPR, 48

random linear models, 29–30

Sudden Infant Death Syndrome

SPR, 13, 66

unit weight models, 30–31

Violence Risk Appraisal Guide

(VRAG), 46, 48, 49–50

wine predictor, 26–27

See also success of Statistical

Prediction Rules

Stein, E., 119, 120, 132

Stich, S., viii, ix, 16, 78, 100, 107, 108,

113, 119, 183, 184

204 Index

Stillwell, W., 13, 66

Stine, G. 132

story-telling, 50–52, 148–152

Strategic Reliabilism, 4, 71, 138,

170–171, 178–182

applied, 119–137, 138–157

availability problem, 101–102

counterexamples, 171–173

descriptive core of, 104

epistemic excellence, 16–17, 169–170

explains success of Ameliorative

Psychology, 175

explains success of Aristotelian

Principle, 174–175

generality problem, 178–182

goal of guiding reason, 162,

172, 181

inessential codicil, 116–118

naturalist challenge, 115–116

problem of environmental disparity,

72–74

reasoning strategies, 17, 71–78,

139–144

and virtue epistemology, 183–184

vs. the theories of Standard Analytic

Epistemology, 116–118,

182–185

See also philosophy of science

approach to epistemology,

expected range of a reasoning

strategy

Strayer, D. L., 85

Strevens, M., ix, 34, 36

Stutzer, A., 99, 170

success of Statistical Prediction Rules

and claims to native epistemic

expertise, 53

explanation for, 32–37

Golden Rule of Predictive Modeling,

12–13, 27

unfair test against experts, 31–32

Sunstein, C., 83, 84, 166

Swain, M., 10

Swets, J., 12, 13, 49, 57

Take the Best, 57

Takemura, K., 134

Thomson, L., 152

Thornton, B., 30

Todd, P., 55, 56, 75

Tversky, A., 12, 119–120, 126, 148

Twine, J., ix

Unger, P., 9

ungrounded Statistical Prediction

Rules, 47–52

unit weight models, 30–31

van der Heijden, A. H. C., 40

Vranas, P., ix

Wedding, D., 13

Weinberg, J., 107, 108, 113, 184

Weiss, M., 51

Wells, G. L., ix, 145, 156

West, R., 133

Wiggins, N., 28

Williams, M., 110

Wilson, T., 156, 170, 176

Wittman, M., 13

Wunderlich, M., ix, 34

Yates, J. F., 134

Zagzebski, L., 183

Ziskin, J., 14

Index 205