4.2. Adopting a more reliable (but no more expensive) reasoning strategy
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The simplest and most straightforward way to improve reasoning is to
replace a reasoning strategy with one that is no more expensive and is
more reliable at that price (top left quadrant of Figure 3.5). Such a change
always leads to better reasoning. For example, Test Taker should always
adopt a strategy that leads him to answer more questions correctly on the
(say) quantitative portion of the test in a shorter (or equal) amount of
time. A number of SPRs we have considered improve reasoning in this
way. For example, Goldberg’s Rule is so easy to use that it is almost surely
less expensive (both in cognitive and monetary terms) than clinical prediction.
There are a number of SPRs for assessing infants’ risk for SIDS
(Sudden Infant Death Syndrome) that are also likely to be less expensive
than clinical prediction (Carpenter et al. 1977, Golding et al. 1985).
Credit-scoring models are also likely to be less expensive than using bank
managers to make credit decisions, although it is hard to know this for
sure since such models are a closely guarded secret (Lovie and Lovie 1986;
Stillwell et al. 1983). These SPRs are more reliable than clinical prediction.
(Further, when SPRs are used by institutions, they can often be handed
over to a computer program, which can make them inexpensive indeed.)
66 Epistemology and the Psychology of Human Judgment
The simplest and most straightforward way to improve reasoning is to
replace a reasoning strategy with one that is no more expensive and is
more reliable at that price (top left quadrant of Figure 3.5). Such a change
always leads to better reasoning. For example, Test Taker should always
adopt a strategy that leads him to answer more questions correctly on the
(say) quantitative portion of the test in a shorter (or equal) amount of
time. A number of SPRs we have considered improve reasoning in this
way. For example, Goldberg’s Rule is so easy to use that it is almost surely
less expensive (both in cognitive and monetary terms) than clinical prediction.
There are a number of SPRs for assessing infants’ risk for SIDS
(Sudden Infant Death Syndrome) that are also likely to be less expensive
than clinical prediction (Carpenter et al. 1977, Golding et al. 1985).
Credit-scoring models are also likely to be less expensive than using bank
managers to make credit decisions, although it is hard to know this for
sure since such models are a closely guarded secret (Lovie and Lovie 1986;
Stillwell et al. 1983). These SPRs are more reliable than clinical prediction.
(Further, when SPRs are used by institutions, they can often be handed
over to a computer program, which can make them inexpensive indeed.)
66 Epistemology and the Psychology of Human Judgment